What does the future hold for dropouts? The latest ELA data is here

To fully understand dropout patterns, the circumstances of dropouts and graduates had to be properly compared. Experts at OPI PIB focused on individuals who had completely discontinued their tertiary education. For the research to remain reliable, dropouts were contrasted with graduates who did not pursue further programmes beyond their initial degree. Due to the fact that professional pursuits are usually less prominent during study periods, the analyses presented in subsequent paragraphs pertain to individuals who dropped out of second-cycle programmes and long-cycle programmes in 2023. Their circumstances are contrasted with those of 2023 master’s graduates. Both groups were analysed during the first year after they finished their education, whether through graduation or dropout.

’The latest ELA data makes it unmistakably clear that dropout is not only a personal decision but also a measurable loss for the entire higher education system and the economy. Leaving university too early undermines young people’s career prospects and slows the development of regions in need of qualified specialists. This demonstrates the need for universities and the Ministry to collaborate in shaping conditions that help students continue their studies, by offering financial support, flexible education pathways, and programmes adjusted to labour market trends,’ underlines professor Maria Mrówczyńska, undersecretary of state at the Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education.

‘ELA provides precise insight into which student groups and areas face the greatest dropout risk and what the implications are. This knowledge is crucial for creating more effective educational policies. Our objective is to ensure that students receive high-quality education and the support needed to graduate, since a university degree continues to substantially reduce labour market uncertainty,’ adds professor Mrówczyńska.

Where do dropouts and graduates move to?

Across Poland, nearly equal shares of graduates (27.8%) and dropouts (28.3%) relocated from provinces in which they had studied.

‘According to ELA, the largest shares of dropouts relocated from the Opolskie, Małopolskie and Dolnośląskie provinces. It is worth noting that these provinces also recorded considerable shares of relocating graduates,’ says Dr Mikołaj Jasiński, expert at the National Information Processing Institute. The smallest shares of dropouts relocated from the Podlaskie, Podkarpackie, and Zachodniopomorskie provinces, where small graduate outmigration was observed,’ adds Dr Jasiński.

Economic impact of dropouts

The economic aspect of dropout migration merit further exploration. Two indicators were examined – nominal earnings in PLN and the Relative Earnings Rate (RER), which indicates how relative earnings compare to average remunerations in specific powiats of residence and provides a geographically standardized representation of the factual economic situation in those regions.

Experts at OPI PIB compared median earnings of dropouts and graduates who remained in the provinces where they had studied with median earnings of those who relocated.

‘In both cases, across the country, dropouts earned less than graduates. Remaining in the province of study corresponded to a dropout–graduate median earnings gap of PLN 228.91 in favour of graduates, while leaving the province increased that gap to PLN 255.39,’ says Dr Agnieszka Chłoń-Domińczak of Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), expert at OPI PIB. ‘Relocation correlated with higher earnings for both dropouts and graduates, with respective differences of PLN 6218.61 vs PLN 5980.00 and PLN 6474.00 vs PLN 6208.91,’ adds Dr Chłoń-Domińczak.

Similarly, in terms of relative earnings, dropouts were worse off than graduates, regardless of whether they stayed in or relocated from their province of study.

The differences in the RER medians were the following:

•  -0.04 (-4% of average earnings in the powiats of residence) for those who remained in their  province of study.

•  -0.02 (-2% of average earnings in the powiats of residence) for those who left their province of study.

The economic situation, measured by RER values, was better for both dropouts and graduates who relocated from their provinces of study than for dropouts and graduates who remained in their provinces of study (0.86 vs 0.75 for dropouts and 0.88 vs 0.79 for graduates).

In all provinces dropouts who stayed in their province of study earned less in PLN and in nearly all provinces their economic circumstances measured by RER were weaker.

In nearly all provinces, dropouts who relocated from the province in which they had studied earned less in PLN and, in the vast majority of provinces, their economic circumstances measured by RER were weaker than those of graduates.

Who benefited from relocating to another province?

‘ELA allows for an earnings comparison between graduates and dropouts based on whether they moved between provinces. Overall, relocation offers dropouts far fewer benefits than it does migrating graduates. The most substantial migration advantages accrue to residents of the Śląskie and Warmińsko-Mazurskie provinces. The advantages of relocation were also evident for those from Wielkopolskie, Kujawsko-Pomorskie, and Podlaskie,’ says Dr Marek Bożykowski, expert at OPI PIB. ‘It is also important to highlight the differences in financial benefits between those who left the Łódzkie province and those who stayed. Dropouts who relocated were worse off in earnings than stayers, while graduates who relocated earned more. As for the Pomorskie province, migrating dropouts were better off than migrating graduates. One could say that by moving to another province, dropouts are trying to bridge the gap that separates them from graduates. Unfortunately, despite their efforts, dropouts are still paid less,’ adds Dr Bożykowski.

Table 1. Differences between median nominal earnings of graduates and dropouts – migrants vs stayers

Source: ELA

Migration as a pathway for dropouts to catch up with graduates

Both graduates and dropouts often relocate from their province of study in pursuit of better earning opportunities, although this pattern does not apply to all regions. According to ELA, relocating from the Śląskie and Warmińsko-Mazurskie provinces offers the greatest improvement in earnings, whereas leaving Mazowieckie, Opolskie, Podkarpackie, and Dolnośląskie yields limited or negative results, especially for graduates.

The latest ELA data confirms that graduates maintain a financial advantage over dropouts, regardless of whether the latter stayed in or relocated from their province of study. Graduates earn more than dropouts, which indicates that a diploma continues to be a valuable asset in the labour market. That said, the advantage graduates hold over dropouts is weaker among migrants, which means that relocation narrows—but does not eliminate—the financial divide between the groups in the labour market.

The Polish Graduate Tracking System (ELA) is available at https://ela.nauka.gov.pl/pl/home.