To fully understand dropout patterns, the circumstances of dropouts and graduates had to be properly compared. Experts at OPI PIB focused on individuals who had completely discontinued their tertiary education. For the research to remain reliable, dropouts were contrasted with graduates who did not pursue further programmes beyond their initial degree. Due to the fact that professional pursuits are usually less prominent during study periods, the analyses presented in subsequent paragraphs pertain to individuals who dropped out of second-cycle programmes and long-cycle programmes in 2023. Their circumstances are contrasted with those of 2023 master\u2019s graduates. Both groups were analysed during the first year after they finished their education, whether through graduation or dropout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u2019The latest ELA data makes it unmistakably clear that dropout is not only a personal decision but also a measurable loss for the entire higher education system and the economy. Leaving university too early undermines young people\u2019s career prospects and slows the development of regions in need of qualified specialists. This demonstrates the need for universities and the Ministry to collaborate in shaping conditions that help students continue their studies, by offering financial support, flexible education pathways, and programmes adjusted to labour market trends,\u2019 <\/em>underlines professor Maria Mr\u00f3wczy\u0144ska, undersecretary of state at the Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2018ELA provides precise insight into which student groups and areas face the greatest dropout risk and what the implications are. This knowledge is crucial for creating more effective educational policies. Our objective is to ensure that students receive high-quality education and the support needed to graduate, since a university degree continues to substantially reduce labour market uncertainty,\u2019 <\/em>adds professor Mr\u00f3wczy\u0144ska.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Where do dropouts and graduates move to?<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Across Poland, nearly equal shares of graduates (27.8%) and dropouts (28.3%) relocated from provinces in which they had studied.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2018According to ELA, the largest shares of dropouts relocated from the Opolskie, Ma\u0142opolskie and Dolno\u015bl\u0105skie provinces. It is worth noting that these provinces also recorded considerable shares of relocating graduates,\u2019<\/em> says Dr Miko\u0142aj Jasi\u0144ski, expert at the National Information Processing Institute. The smallest shares of dropouts relocated from the Podlaskie, Podkarpackie, and Zachodniopomorskie provinces, where small graduate outmigration was observed,\u2019 <\/em>adds Dr Jasi\u0144ski.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Economic impact of dropouts<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The economic aspect of dropout migration merit further exploration. Two indicators were examined \u2013 nominal earnings in PLN and the Relative Earnings Rate (RER), which indicates how relative earnings compare to average remunerations in specific powiats<\/em> of residence and provides a geographically standardized representation of the factual economic situation in those regions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Experts at OPI PIB compared median earnings of dropouts and graduates who remained in the provinces where they had studied with median earnings of those who relocated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2018In both cases, across the country, dropouts earned less than graduates. Remaining in the province of study corresponded to a dropout\u2013graduate median earnings gap of PLN 228.91 in favour of graduates, while leaving the province increased that gap to PLN 255.39,\u2019 <\/em>says Dr Agnieszka Ch\u0142o\u0144-Domi\u0144czak of Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), expert at OPI PIB. \u2018Relocation correlated with higher earnings for both dropouts and graduates, with respective differences of PLN 6218.61 vs PLN 5980.00 and PLN 6474.00 vs PLN 6208.91,\u2019<\/em> adds Dr Ch\u0142o\u0144-Domi\u0144czak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Similarly, in terms of relative earnings, dropouts were worse off than graduates, regardless of whether they stayed in or relocated from their province of study.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The differences in the RER medians were the following:<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2022\u00a0\u00a0-0.04 (-4% of average earnings in the powiats<\/em> of residence) for those who remained in their \u00a0province of study.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2022\u00a0\u00a0-0.02 (-2% of average earnings in the powiats<\/em> of residence) for those who left their province of study.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The economic situation, measured by RER values, was better for both dropouts and graduates who relocated from their provinces of study than for dropouts and graduates who remained in their provinces of study (0.86 vs 0.75 for dropouts and 0.88 vs 0.79 for graduates).<\/p>\n\n\n\n In all provinces dropouts who stayed in their province of study earned less in PLN and in nearly all provinces their economic circumstances measured by RER were weaker.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In nearly all provinces, dropouts who relocated from the province in which they had studied earned less in PLN and, in the vast majority of provinces, their economic circumstances measured by RER were weaker than those of graduates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Who benefited from relocating to another province<\/strong>?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2018ELA allows for an earnings comparison between graduates and dropouts based on whether they moved between provinces. Overall, relocation offers dropouts far fewer benefits than it does migrating graduates. The most substantial migration advantages accrue to residents<\/em> of the \u015al\u0105skie and Warmi\u0144sko-Mazurskie provinces. The advantages of relocation were also evident for those from Wielkopolskie, Kujawsko-Pomorskie, and Podlaskie,\u2019<\/em> says Dr Marek Bo\u017cykowski, expert at OPI PIB. \u2018It is also important to highlight the differences in financial benefits between those who left the \u0141\u00f3dzkie province and those who stayed. Dropouts who relocated were worse off in earnings than stayers, while graduates who relocated earned more. As for the Pomorskie province, migrating dropouts were better off than migrating graduates. One could say that by moving to another province, dropouts are trying to bridge the gap that separates them from graduates. Unfortunately, despite their efforts, dropouts are still paid less,\u2019<\/em> adds Dr Bo\u017cykowski.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Table 1. Differences between median nominal earnings of graduates and dropouts \u2013 migrants vs stayers <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Source: ELA<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n Migration as a pathway for dropouts to catch up with graduates<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Both graduates and dropouts often relocate from their province of study in pursuit of better earning opportunities, although this pattern does not apply to all regions. According to ELA, relocating from the \u015al\u0105skie and Warmi\u0144sko-Mazurskie provinces offers the greatest improvement in earnings, whereas leaving Mazowieckie, Opolskie, Podkarpackie, and Dolno\u015bl\u0105skie yields limited or negative results, especially for graduates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The latest ELA data confirms that graduates maintain a financial advantage over dropouts, regardless of whether the latter stayed in or relocated from their province of study. Graduates earn more than dropouts, which indicates that a diploma continues to be a valuable asset in the labour market.<\/strong> That said, the advantage graduates hold over dropouts is weaker among migrants, which means that relocation narrows\u2014but does not eliminate\u2014the financial divide between the groups in the labour market.<\/p>\n\n\n\nProvince<\/th> Difference: dropouts<\/th> Difference: graduates<\/th><\/tr> Dolno\u015bl\u0105skie<\/td> PLN 11.94 <\/td> PLN -377.88 <\/td><\/tr> Kujawsko-Pomorskie<\/td> PLN 415.29 <\/td> PLN 534.00 <\/td><\/tr> Lubelskie<\/td> PLN -2.47 <\/td> PLN -96.46 <\/td><\/tr> Lubuskie<\/td> PLN 48.18 <\/td> PLN 875.60 <\/td><\/tr> \u0141\u00f3dzkie<\/td> PLN -252.72 <\/td> PLN 536.00 <\/td><\/tr> Ma\u0142opolskie<\/td> PLN 195.97 <\/td> PLN 69.64 <\/td><\/tr> Mazowieckie<\/td> PLN -81.14 <\/td> PLN 44.04 <\/td><\/tr> Opolskie<\/td> PLN 5.82<\/td> PLN -115.28 <\/td><\/tr> Podkarpackie<\/td> PLN -95.65 <\/td> PLN -0.46 <\/td><\/tr> Podlaskie<\/td> PLN 318.59 <\/td> PLN 658.35 <\/td><\/tr> Pomorskie<\/td> PLN 383.91 <\/td> PLN 20.46 <\/td><\/tr> \u015al\u0105skie<\/td> PLN 1,059.33 <\/td> PLN 1,471.42 <\/td><\/tr> \u015awi\u0119tokrzyskie<\/td> PLN 367.00 <\/td> PLN 384.03 <\/td><\/tr> Warmi\u0144sko-mazurskie<\/td> PLN 1,002.30 <\/td> PLN 1,275.27 <\/td><\/tr> Wielkopolskie<\/td> PLN 430.85 <\/td> PLN 430.26 <\/td><\/tr> Zachodniopomorskie<\/td> PLN 74.38 <\/td> PLN 0.00 <\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n